With 54 matches done, the IPL 2025 playoff race is really coming down to the wire. Punjab Kings are up to second on 15 points after their latest win, while Lucknow Super Giants have slipped to seventh following a 37‑run loss. Chennai Super Kings were the first side out after their eighth defeat, and Rajasthan Royals bowed out soon after with a heavy 100‑run loss to Mumbai Indians. That means eight teams are left battling it out for the last four playoff spots. In this article, we’ll explore the IPL 2025 playoff qualification scenarios and break down what each team needs to do to secure a spot in the playoffs.
IPL 2025 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Roadmap for the Final 4
RCB Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Can They Secure a Top-2 Finish?
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 11 Points: 16 NRR: +0.482 Remaining Matches: 3 |
| Playoff Qualification Breakdown | RCB are nearly in the playoffs with 16 points. One more win will confirm their spot. Two wins will bring them to 20 points, securing a possible top-2 finish and direct entry into Qualifier 1. |
| Probability of Playoff Qualification | 95% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. LSG (away) 2. SRH (home) 3. KKR (home) |
PBKS Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Can They Secure a Top-2 Finish?
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 11 Points: 15 NRR: +0.376 Remaining Matches: 3 |
| Qualification Scenario | A win in their next match will almost confirm qualification. To stay in the top 2, PBKS must keep performing well to secure a direct route to the final. |
| Probability of Qualification | 80-85% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. DC (Home) 2. MI (Home) 3. RR (Away) |
MI Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Can They Maintain Their Top Spot?
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 11 Points: 14 NRR: +0.889 Remaining Matches: 3 |
| Qualification Scenario | After six consecutive wins, MI have surged to the top spot with a superior NRR over RCB. With 14 points, MI need just 1 more win to reach 16 points. Winning 3 out of 3 could secure a top-2 finish and a direct spot in Qualifier 1. Losing all three matches would complicate their qualification chances, as they will face teams in the top 6. |
| Probability of Qualification | 90% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. GT (Home) 2. PBKS (Away) 3. DC (Home) |
GT Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Strong NRR Boosts Their Top-2 Hopes
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 10 Points: 14 NRR: +0.867 Remaining Matches: 4 |
| Qualification Scenario | With an extra game in hand, GT need just 1 win to reach 16 points and likely confirm a playoff spot. Two wins would take them to 18, and their excellent NRR gives them an edge in any tiebreaker scenario. Their position is one of the strongest in the race. |
| Probability of Qualification | 90-95% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. MI (Away) 2. DC (Away) 3. LSG (Home) 4. CSK (Home) |
DC Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Can They Power Through a Tight Race?
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 10 Points: 12 NRR: +0.362 Remaining Matches: 4 |
| Qualification Scenario | DC need at least 2 wins to reach 16 points, but with a lower NRR compared to MI and GT, they may require 3 wins to safely avoid tiebreaker complications. The road ahead is tough, but a playoff berth is still within reach. |
| Probability of Qualification | 70-75% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. SRH (Away) 2. PBKS (Away) 3. GT (Home) 4. MI (Away) |
KKR Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Can They Pull Off a Late Comeback?
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 11 Points: 11 NRR: +0.249 Remaining Matches: 3 |
| Qualification Scenario | KKR must win at least 2 of their 3 remaining games to reach 15 points, but that may not be enough unless their NRR remains positive. Winning all 3 matches to finish at 17 points would significantly boost their chances. Their recent close game vs RR shows how tight the margin is every match now becomes a must-win. |
| Probability of Qualification | 40-50% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. CSK (Home) 2. SRH (Away) 3. RCB (Away) |
LSG Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Can They Overcome a Tough Road and Negative NRR?
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 11 Points: 10 NRR: -0.469 Remaining Matches: 3 |
| Qualification Scenario | LSG must win all 3 of their remaining matches to reach 16 points and keep playoff hopes alive. Winning only 2 games would leave them at 14 points a risky total, especially with their negative NRR. Their qualification chances hinge on beating tough teams like RCB and GT while hoping for slip-ups from others. |
| Probability of Qualification | 20-30% |
| Remaining Matches | 1. RCB (Home) 2. GT (Away) 3. SRH (Home) |
SRH Playoff Qualification Scenarios: Slim Hopes Remain Amid Tough Math
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 10 Points: 6 NRR: -1.192 Remaining Matches: 4 |
| Qualification Scenario | Even with 4 wins, SRH can only reach 14 points. That might not be enough unless multiple teams finish below 14. Their severely negative NRR further hurts their tiebreaker chances. They must win all games and hope for a very specific combination of results elsewhere. |
| Probability of Qualification | 0–5% (Highly Unlikely) |
| Remaining Matches | 1. DC (Home) 2. KKR (Home) 3. RCB (Away) 4. LSG (Away) |
RR Playoff Scenario: Officially Eliminated After 9th Loss
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 12 Points: 6 NRR: -0.718 Remaining Matches: 2 |
| Elimination Scenario | Rajasthan Royals have been officially eliminated from the playoff race after their loss to MI. Even with wins in their last two matches, they can reach only 12 points not enough to break into the top 4. With just 3 wins in 12 games, their campaign ends in disappointment. |
| Probability of Qualification | 0% (Eliminated) |
| Remaining Matches | 1. CSK (Away) 2. PBKS (Home) |
CSK Playoff Scenario: Officially the First Team Eliminated from Playoff Race
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Current Status | Matches Played: 11 Points: 4 NRR: -1.117 Remaining Matches: 3 |
| Elimination Scenario | Chennai Super Kings have been officially eliminated from the playoff race. Even if they win all remaining games, they can reach only 10 points far from the qualification threshold. CSK’s campaign ends early, marking a rare disappointing season for the five-time champions. |
| Probability of Qualification | 0% (Eliminated) |
| Remaining Matches | 1. KKR (Away) 2. RR (Home) 3. GT (Away) |
ALSO READ: IPL 2025 Points Table: Team Rankings After PBKS vs LSG Match
srinath das
muhammadsajid
Satish Mittal
