T20 World Cup: Qualification scenario for Pakistan against Sri Lanka

Things so far have largely gone Pakistan’s way, especially with England’s come-from-behind victory against New Zealand. All Pakistan need to do now to get a semi-final berth is to first defeat Sri Lanka, and then do so by a large enough margin to overhaul New Zealand’s Net Run Rate of 1.390. Anything short of this, including a washout, will see them out of the World Cup.

This means Pakistan will need to punch above their weight to ensure they don’t return home before the semi-final phase, rather than exiting anticlimactically due to NRR.

Batting first:

Ideally, Pakistan should look to bat first because that keeps their task marginally easier. Depending on the total, they would need to defeat Sri Lanka by around 60 to 65 runs. In doing so, their -0.461 NRR would need to climb above New Zealand’s 1.390, securing them a spot in the semis.

Chasing the target:

Should Pakistan chase, they would need to display more firepower. Depending on the target, Pakistan would need to chase it inside 12 to 14 overs. For instance, if Sri Lanka post a 160-run total, which is around the average first-innings score in Kandy this World Cup, Pakistan would need to win the game within 13.2 overs.

The first semi-final and the final are set to be played in Colombo, provided Pakistan qualify. Otherwise, the semi-final will be shifted to Kolkata and the final to Ahmedabad.

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