Rajasthan Royals' IPL 2025 playoff hopes: Sanju Samson and Rahul Dravid's chances appear slim

Rajasthan had a tough start to the season when they lost their captain, Sanju Samson, for the first three matches. In his absence, Riyan Parag took over the captaincy and led the team to their first win, which came against CSK in their third game. Things looked up when Samson returned and captained the team to another victory in a high-scoring match against the Punjab Kings. But after that, things went downhill. They faced back-to-back heavy defeats, first losing to Gujarat Titans by 58 runs, and then getting thrashed by Royal Challengers Bengaluru, who beat them by 9 wickets.

The effects of the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 mega auction have been hurting the Rajasthan Royals (RR) massively. They lost the likes of Jos Buttler, Yuzvendra Chahal, and Trent Boult, among many other key players, and are now reeling in the bottom half of the IPL 2025 points table. Well, the Sanju Samson-led side technically has around a 10% chance of qualifying for the IPL 2025 playoffs after RR’s loss to Delhi Capitals (DC) on April 16.

Rajasthan Royals' Playoff Hopes Fading After Third Straight Loss

Rajasthan Royals faced their third straight loss, this time in a heart-stopping Super Over against Delhi Capitals. It was a real nail-biter, but the defeat has made things tough for RR. Their chances of qualifying are now hanging by a thread, and they’ll need to be almost perfect in the second half of the tournament to stay in the race.

Just like Chennai, the Rajasthan Royals have a tough road ahead if they want to reach the IPL 2025 playoffs. With only 2 wins from their first 7 games, Sanju Samson and his team really need to step up. The easiest way forward is to win all of their remaining 7 matches. That would take them to 18 points, enough to almost guarantee a spot in the playoffs. But expecting them to win every game, especially when they’ve been so up and down, might be more wishful thinking than a realistic plan.

RR path to the playoffs

• 18 Points (9 Wins Total, 7 Wins in Last 7 Matches)
  → Guaranteed Qualification for Playoffs.

• 16 Points (8 Wins Total, 6 Wins in Last 7 Matches)
  → Likely to Qualify, but Net Run Rate (NRR) will play a deciding role.

• 14 Points (7 Wins Total, 5 Wins in Last 7 Matches)
  → Barely Possible to qualify — needs exceptional NRR and favorable results from other teams.

• 12 Points or Less (6 or Fewer Wins)
  → Eliminated from Playoffs contention.

Ever since the IPL expanded to 10 teams, reaching 16 points has pretty much guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. If Rajasthan Royals can win 6 of their remaining 7 matches, they’ll end up with 16 points, which should be enough to keep them ahead of the mid-table competition. But from here on, there’s hardly any room for mistakes. 

If RR wins 5 of their last 7 games, they’ll end up with 14 points. That might be enough to make the playoffs, but only if their net run rate is strong. It’s risky though, once you rely on NRR, it’s anyone’s game. Anything less than 14 points, and they can pretty much start packing their bags early again. Since 2020, teams have made it to the playoffs with 14 points three times, including RCB last year in 2024. RR needs to get serious now and bring their A-game if they want to stay in the race. 

Rajasthan Royals' upcoming fixtures:

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