2026 T20 World Cup: Can Pakistan still qualify for the semi-final?

With a two-wicket defeat against England, Pakistan have traversed into a familiar but dangerous zone. Their fate is not entirely in their own hands and plenty of maths needs to be done to see how they can survive this stage. They would have to hope other teams beat one another, while also ensuring they are not the ones beaten.

England have occupied one spot in the semi-finals, which leaves only one for Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and Pakistan.

How can Pakistan secure a semi-final spot:

First things first, Pakistan fans’ loyalty should now lie with any team playing against New Zealand. If New Zealand lose both of their remaining games, Pakistan’s path to the semi-final would be cleared out again. 

If Sri Lanka win in their next fixture against the Kiwis, New Zealand will enter their final group stage game against England with just one point. This would mean New Zealand would fail to get to more than three points, the maximum Pakistan can now reach, regardless of the result against England. 

However, to prevent the NRR from coming into play, Pakistan would hope England defeat the Kiwis on Friday. With this loss, New Zealand will be eliminated, leaving only Sri Lanka to be tackled.

Hope SL beat NZ, and then beat SL

Pakistan would then need to defeat Sri Lanka in their final Super Eights fixture on February 28. Even if every team wins and loses according to Pakistan’s needs, the plan would be foiled if they eventually lose against Sri Lanka.

With all these results, Pakistan can get to three points, one more than Sri Lanka (winning against New Zealand and losing to Pakistan) and two more than New Zealand (losing both of their remaining games).

Pakistan should:

• Hope New Zealand lose both of their remaining games
• Beat Sri Lanka

What if there is a washout?

Washouts will work against Pakistan as they can bring net run rate (NRR) into play.

• If NZ vs SL is a washout, England beating NZ by a big margin, paired with SL losing their third game, would work in Pakistan’s favour.
• If England vs NZ is a washout, it would not be a problem for Pakistan as long as NZ were beaten by SL earlier.
• If SL vs Pakistan is a washout, it should not worry Pakistan as long as NZ have lost both of their matches.
• If all of the remaining Group 1 fixtures are washouts, New Zealand will go through to the semi-finals.

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